At that moment the wager was on! Was I a fool, or will Tolkien’s masterpiece save the day? Only time will tell, but here’s what statistics may suggest. The Hobbit is believed to have sold more than 100 million copies. Of course, it’s been out since 1937. Breaking Dawn, the fourth novel in the Twilight Saga, is believed to have sold at least 10 million copies, and it’s only been around since 2008. So, if The Hobbit has been out about 75 years, that would amount to an annual sales average of a little more than 1.3 million copies. Breaking Dawn may be averaging at least 2.5 million copies annually in just four years! (Thinking I’m in trouble.)
Or course, we’re talking movies here, not books. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 stars Robert Pattinson (a fact my wife has reminded me of more times than I can count) and Kristen Stewart. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey stars a British actor I’ve never heard of and Ian McKellen. (Thinking now I’m in big trouble.)
Since I’m probably going down with a ship full of dwarves, I thought I’d have a little more fun with this and feature my first book giveaway on this blog. Here are the rules, if you’re interested in joining this oh-so-important debate:
- Post a comment here by noon (EST) on Sunday, Dec. 16, 2012, with a prediction of whether The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey will out-gross The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 at the U.S. domestic box office by the end of The Hobbit’s third week (which will be Dec. 28-30, 2012); and predict by how much (in U.S. dollars) The Hobbit will exceed or fall short of Breaking Dawn Part 2 during this same time frame (i.e., the “margin of victory”).
- The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn: Part 2 grossed $254,598,866 at the end of its third week according to Box Office Mojo, which will be our official source for domestic box office data. This is the number The Hobbit will have to beat.
- In addition to posting your prediction, you must be a “follower” of this blog, which means you’ve “joined this site” by clicking the “Join this site” button on the right-hand column.
- The whole thing is free, like my blog. If you win, you must be able to send me an email address and have a regular street address (no P.O. Boxes) for shipping purposes. Books can only be sent to addresses in the United States and Canada.
- The winner – i.e., the person who predicts which film will have the highest domestic box office gross at the end of its first 3 weeks and comes closest to predicting the margin of victory – will win the book giveaway, either a copy of The Twilight Saga Breaking Dawn Part 1: The Official Illustrated Movie Companion, or The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey Visual Companion, depending on whichever film prevails. In the event of a tie, the winner will be chosen by a random drawing.
So, its Bella vs. Bilbo (or is it Edward vs. Thorin?), and the game is on! Best of luck to all – and throw some luck my way. I’m afraid I’m going to need it!